Under/Over 2.5 Goals Betting
Under/over markets give football bettors the opportunity to roughly forecast the number of goals in a game. Predicting the exact score is a lot more challenging and carries a greater risk, which is why many bettors choose under/over markets. In this particular instance, the focus is on under/over 2.5 goals.
How the Market Works
To win an under 2.5 goals bet, the game cannot have more than two goals scored by both teams combined – three goals will result in a losing bet. An over 2.5 goals bet will only win if there are three or more collective goals in the game. Bookies view over as less likely than under for these bets, which is why the odds are more rewarding for over.
From the under/over markets, 2.5 goals is the point at which both outcomes are closest to equilibrium. And what is meant by this is that betting under 2.5 goals will deliver only slightly lower odds compared to betting over 2.5 goals. Looking below 2.5 goals, 0.5 and 1.5 offer superior odds for under bets as opposed to over bets.
West Bromwich Albion are to play at home against Sunderland in what will be a clash expected to deliver some goals. How many, though, is the question. The odds assigned to an under 2.5 goals bet are 11/10. With a £10 stake, profit of £6.67 will be earned by the punter.
A number of results could have resulted in the win, including nil-nil, 1-nil, nil-1, 1-1, 2-nil, and nil-2. In total, there are six possible results that could yield a payout. This is particularly positive for an under bet as wagering is all about having options. In contrast, there are just three bets capable of winning an under 1.5 goals wager.
Sticking with West Brom at home against Sunderland, the odds are 11/10 for the game to have more than three goals. Again using a £10 stake as the example, the winnings will be £11. That’s £4.33 more than the return for an under bet on 2.5 goals, signifying that the over outcome is less likely.
To win on over 2.5 goals, you need to hope for 2-1, 1-2, 3-nil, nil-3 or better to deliver a winning bet. Over 2.5 goals can be a challenging bet and will deliver losses to punters who do not take the time to evaluate statistics.
Working with Statistics
Pay a visit to sites like ESPNFC and BBC Sport to view a home and away breakdown of league statistics. There will always be teams with home strongholds and others that just can’t travel. These are the opportunities that must be taken advantage of when betting on over 2.5 goals. To summarise, look for the top scoring teams and leaky defences.
Over 2.5 goals would have made for the wisest wagers in the 2013/14 Premier League season – and this is due to the longer odds offered on these bets. Over the entire season, 52% of games had three goals or more. That’s relatively even, but what makes the difference are the higher odds for over bets.