With politics in Britain being such a talked about topic with all the scandals and shifts of power it is fast becoming a popular betting market to bet on.
Currently at the time of this article our next primer minister will either be Rishi Sunak or Liz Truss.
Here are the odds currently available on oddschecker.com
Liz Truss 4/7
Rishi Sunak 5/4
As you can see at the minute Liz Truss is odds on favourite. Although this was not the case 8 days ago when she was third favourite at 7/2 while Rishi was also 7/2 and Penny Mordant was odds on favourite at 4/6.
Now the contest is slightly different as Liz and Rishi are the final two left to bet on. What it does show is that things can change dramatically. How was odds on Penny Mordaunt ejected from the leadership race?
In short she fell out of favour.
The vote between Truss and Sunak at this point is really about whether policy will out way capability.
Rishi Sunak is clearly the more capable politician, he is also the better orator.
Liz Truss meanwhile is seen as a laughing stock, see what I mean by this video here…
So how do we have her as current favourite. In my opinion it is to do with her policies of tax cuts and taking the green levy off energy bills. Which Sunak has indicated is “fantasy economics”.
The decision of who is next Prime Minister falls to the Conservative Party membership of 200,000 people rather than the general public, who I suspect would vote Sunak.
At the odds I would fancy Rishi Sunak to turn things around as their is a tiny bit of value at 5/4. As I would have him at evens.
He is unpopular with the conservative voters due to his tax rises and also for ousting Boris Johnson (who I suspect may be preferred by the membership to both Sunak and Truss despite his obvious flaws and mistakes) but he is the most likely candidate for the long term success of the conservative party and who would be the most likely to beat Labour leader Keir Starmer in a general election.
It will be interesting to see who gets the job as it will show whether the conservative membership is more interested in tax cuts or in capability. Who knows Liz Truss may surprise the country, but I think the value bet is Sunak and he is best of a bad bunch for the future of our country.