Norwich City are making positive progress towards earning their survival for another Premier League season. Manager Alex Neil deserves to be commended for his work, but it might be a step too far to believe they can make it past Man City in the FA Cup third round.
The Canaries have managed to perform pretty well in their Premier League home games and are currently ranked seventh on this basis. However, they are now facing a Man City side that has at last figured out how to win away from home. Furthermore, City manager Manuel Pellegrini knows that he needs to win multiple trophies to save his job.
At home, Norwich concede an average of one goal a game and score a little over that. They have managed to tough it out against the likes of Bournemouth, Swansea, Aston Villa, and Southampton. Those final two victories only came in recent weeks, so they do place Norwich at a higher level than is a true reflection of their home performances.
Man City have been virtually incapable of earning clean-sheets without captain and defensive lynchpin Vincent Kompany. For this reason, it is again likely that City will be vulnerable to conceding a goal away from home. Nicolas Otamendi or Eliaquim Mangala can be effective alongside Kompany, but not as a pairing.
At the other end of the pitch, the Citizens are likely to start with Sergio Agüero. The Argentine was the difference between City winning instead of drawing 2-1 against Watford last weekend. Agüero is still returning to fitness and is unlikely to start midweek in the Capital One Cup semi-final, but a midweek rest will enable him to start at Norwich.
Tip one: Man City @ 1.61
Tip two: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.70
Having Agüero back in the Man City line-up allows for the Citizens to convert their draws into wins. Not having Kompany and Agüero makes all the difference for City. While Kompany continues to miss out with injury, Agüero can help City start winning regularly away from home.