Four games remain in the Euro 2016 qualifiers and Germany lie one point behind Poland in Group D, setting up a thrilling Friday night encounter. Germany need to win this game if they are to improve their chances of winnings the group, while any other result will leave Poland in position to win the group outright.
Germany have already lost to Poland, stumbling to a 2-0 loss back in October last year, which was then followed by a 1-1 draw to the Republic of Ireland. However, convincing wins against Gibraltar, Georgia, and Gibraltar again have enabled Germany to avoid an embarrassing collapse in their qualifying campaign.
Behind Germany, Poland were the most likely to qualify in front of Scotland and the Republic of Ireland. Nevertheless, it is surprising to have seen them defeat Germany and remain ahead of them. Poland are absolutely performing better than expectations, but maintaining their performance is critical.
Germany head coach Joachim Löw has an embarrassment of choices in midfield. Outside of Thomas Müller and Marco Reus, there are many other talented midfielders. That being said, it cannot be denied that there is an imbalance in the squad that could hurt their chances moving forward.
For years, Germany depended greatly on Miroslav Klose. Now that he has retired, though, it is obvious that Lukas Podolski is not the answer as their clear goal-scorer. Although a false nine like Müller can prove successful, at times it is vital to have a talented striker to break through defensive teams.
Poland captain Robert Lewandowski is far and away the team’s most talented player. Outside of the Bayern Striker, however, there is a considerable gulf in talent. The success of Poland is contingent on the team playing as a solid unit, limiting the other teams’ chances and creating counter-attacks for Lewandowski. Expect this strategy on Friday.
Tip one: Draw @ 6.00
Tip two: Under 2.5 goals @ 2.25
A Germany win is only worth 1.25, which is odd considering that this easily could end in a draw. Germany’s lack of strikers combined with Poland’s defensive approach could make a draw at 6.00 a more lucrative option.