Under/Over 3.5 Goals Betting
In the under/over betting market, 3.5 goals can either be a rewarding or challenging prospect for football bettors. On one side, an under bet will win more times than an over bet. However, the downside of under bets is that they offer much shorter odds and lower winnings for bettors. Over bets are much riskier but carry very rewarding odds.
How the Market Works
The outcome of these bets will be determined by the collective amount of goals scored by both teams in a game. This means that bets on under 3.5 goals can win results such as 3-nil, 2-1, and any other score lines with three goals or fewer. There are ten possible results that will deliver a winning outcome for under bets on 3.5 goals – four goals is the key barrier to watch out for.
Compared to under bets, it is considerably more challenging to win with bets on over 3.5 goals. The results required are 3-1, 4-nil, or better. Those are the types of result that might not even occur in a week of Premier League games. However, the odds of winning are very rewarding.
The focus of the example is an encounter between Newcastle United and Manchester City at St James’s Park. This is a game with potential for goals, as Newcastle can be prone to defensive lapses. But there are no guarantees that at least four goals will be scored.
Therefore, the example bet will be a £10 stake on under 3.5 goals. The outcome of the game is a 1-2 victory for Manchester City, which gives the punter winnings of £4. Not exactly the most appealing, but a win is a win.
Now, let’s say that the above game was in fact a 1-3 victory for Manchester City. A more optimistic punter backed the over 3.5 goals bet and staked £10 in doing so. This wise punter received winnings of £17.50 from the bet.
As you can see, over bets are always more rewarding for 3.5 goals. But this is for good reason, because only 33% of games had four or more goals in the 2013/14 Premier League season. That being said, 33% is a relatively positive rate considering the superior odds for betting on more than 3.5 goals.
Spotting Over Opportunities
To bet successfully on over 3.5 goals, you have to be opportunistic and possess an ability to think outside of the box. Spotting the potential opportunities will require you to be up-to-date on football news as well as the weather. In the case of the later, a game with torrential rain will be a nightmare for defenders and could force a number of mistakes that lead to goals.
For football news, look out for injury epidemics afflicting defences. Goalkeeper injuries can also lead to more goals being scored, especially if the backup is particularly poor or inexperienced. These are exactly the types of opportunities that make bets on over 3.5 goals more likely to occur. However, the instances outlined above might only arise a few times in a season. By and large, games with weak defences offer the greatest potential.